Poll Shows Nairobi Residents Dissatisfied With Governor as 2027 Race Begins to Take Shape

 

Caption: Center for African Progress Founder and CEO Onchari Oyieyo addresses journalists during a press briefing on a survey on the Nairobi gubernatorial race at a Nairobi hotel on March 6, 2026.

The race for the Nairobi gubernatorial seat in the 2027 General Election is gradually taking shape after a new survey indicated widespread dissatisfaction with the current county leadership and growing interest in alternative candidates.

A poll released by the Center for African Progress (CAP) shows that a majority of Nairobi residents are unhappy with the performance of Governor Johnson Sakaja, while several political figures have already declared interest in the city’s top seat.

Speaking during a press briefing in Nairobi, CAP Founder and Chief Executive Officer Onchari Oyieyo said the survey sought to gauge public opinion on the governor’s performance and identify early frontrunners in the anticipated contest.

“Nairobi County has about 2.45 million registered voters and remains one of the most politically significant counties in the country because it is the commercial, political and administrative capital,” Oyieyo said.

He noted that the county has experienced frequent leadership changes since the introduction of devolution, with several governors serving within a relatively short period due to impeachments and political transitions.

Before the current administration, Nairobi was led by Evans Kidero, followed by Mike Sonko whose tenure ended after impeachment. 

Former county speaker Benson Mutura briefly took over in an acting capacity before Anne Kananu completed the remainder of the term. Governor Sakaja later assumed office following the 2022 General Election.

According to the CAP survey conducted between February 25 and March 1, 2026, a total of 6,000 registered voters across Nairobi County were interviewed using targeted random sampling. 

The study had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.97 percent and a confidence level of 97 percent.

The demographic distribution of respondents reflected Kenya’s youthful population, with a majority aged below 50 years. Women accounted for 51 percent of respondents while 49 percent were men.

When asked whether they were satisfied with the governor’s performance, 82 percent of respondents said they were not satisfied, while eight percent said they were satisfied. Another 10 percent said they had no opinion.

Oyieyo said the results reflect the concerns and complaints that many Nairobi residents have expressed regarding governance and service delivery in the county.

The survey also examined who residents would support as the next governor if elections were held today.

Embakasi East Member of Parliament Babu Owino emerged as the leading candidate with 31 percent support, followed closely by businesswoman Agnes Kagure at 30 percent.

Former Dagoretti South Member of Parliament Dennis Waweru ranked third with 24 percent support.

Other potential contenders recorded lower support levels, including Governor Johnson Sakaja with five percent, Embakasi North MP James Gakuya with three percent, while Irungu Nyakera and Kasarani MP Ronald Karauri each garnered about one percent support. About four percent of respondents said they were still undecided.

Oyieyo noted that the political landscape could still change significantly before the 2027 elections as candidates build alliances and political parties settle on their preferred contenders.

“In Kenyan politics, support often shifts as political alliances form closer to the elections. Many candidates eventually align themselves with major coalitions,” he said.

He added that if the opposition and ruling political formations each settle on a single candidate, the contest for the Nairobi governor seat could ultimately narrow down to two major contenders.

However, Oyieyo said the survey only reflects the current political mood in the city and that the situation may evolve as the election period approaches.

“If the election were held today, the numbers suggest Babu Owino would lead the race. But there is still time before 2027 and political realignments could significantly influence the final outcome,” he said.